DeFi Will Never Be Finance
DeFi advocates claim they're building the future of finance while removing everything that makes finance work: recourse, recovery, accountability, and....
Hard-won lessons from 45+ years in the trenches.
No optimism theater What actually works
DeFi advocates claim they're building the future of finance while removing everything that makes finance work: recourse, recovery, accountability, and....
Per-seat pricing is a legacy model from when humans were the unit of work. AI is exposing the lie: vendors want seats, not efficiency. Here's what's replacing it....
AI agents have hard limits. They will not replace judgment, empathy, expertise, accountability, or physical labor. Five things knowledge workers still own....
The outsourcing boomerang: every company that outsourced its core engineering eventually had to bring it back in, at higher cost and worse quality....
Knowing when to shut down is harder than knowing when to start. The sunk cost fallacy kills more founders than failure....
Rust is safer than C. That's not enough. Trillions of lines of C are in production. The learning curve is brutal....
The $37 billion figure everyone quotes is a 2022 estimate, not a measurement. Meetings are organizational bugs. How to fix the process....
Yann LeCun is betting that large language models are a dead end for AGI. His new startup AMI Labs pursues world models instead....
Most founders planning to sell have no exit strategy. M&A accounts for 85%+ of VC-backed exits. The founders who get the best outcomes planned for them....
MIT-linked studies show 95% of generative AI pilots failed to generate meaningful business impact. The failure patterns and how to avoid them....
Every nation wants AI sovereignty. Only the US and China have anything close to it....
Most advice fails, and not because it is wrong. The gap between the giver's context and the receiver's reality is where well-meaning guidance goes to die....

Contrarian takes on tech, startups, and software. What vendors won't tell you. No spam.
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